New Zealand and South Africa will meet for the right to play in the 2015 Cricket World Cup final on Tuesday at Eden Park. The Kiwis topped Pool A unbeaten and thrashed the West Indies by 143 runs in the quarter-finals to reach the final four. The Proteas stumbled to four wins and two defeats to finish second in Pool B before crushing Sri Lanka by 9 wickets in their quarter in Sydney.
The sides have met at the World Cup on six previous occasions with the New Zealanders leading 4-2. The Black Caps won in 1992, 2003, 2007 and 2011 while the South Africans triumphed in 1996 and 1999. The above statistics and facts imply the co-hosts should be the favourites however AB De Villiers’ side has won its last three One Day Internationals in a row against Brendon McCullum’s charges (excluding one no result).
Moreover in the land of the long white cloud South Africa has won five on the trot save for the lone abandoned fixture against their hosts. This good run of form includes a victory batting second in Auckland in 2012 although New Zealand had no Trent Boult (pictured) or Tim Southee that day. In Auckland it is 3-3 since 1992.
Interestingly the South Africans won one of those batting first and two chasing. But pitches and conditions evolve over time and the game’s rules change constantly too. With that in mind how has Eden Park played at the 2015 World Cup?
Australia was bundled out for 151 after a sensational bowling display by Boult. Mitchell Starc effectively emulated his fellow fast bowler’s feat as the Black Caps reached 152/9. Then Pakistan was dismissed for 222 by a good South African bowling performance. The Pakistanis then bowled well to dismiss the Proteas for just 202. But before you say it must be a seamer’s paradise consider how Zimbabwe posted 287 and India overtook it with 288/4. It should be pointed out that in five of the six innings at least nine wickets fell within 50 overs.
So then an eye should be cast upon the bowling attacks. Boult leads the way with 19 wickets. The fast bowler has been backed up superbly by Southee and Daniel Vettori with 15 sticks each.
South Africa has two top ten tournament wicket takers in Morne Morkel and Imran Tahir with 15 and 14 scalps respectively. A quick glance of everything mentioned thus far perhaps lends a ever so slight edge to the co-hosts however it has not yet been pointed out how they cracked under pressure on home turf in a semi-final in 1992.
Since the Proteas have at last won a World Cup knockout match their confidence and belief is likely to match that of the New Zealanders. So with it all looking so close it may well come down to how well the respective teams bat. Martin Guptill is fresh from a whirlwind 237* against the Windies and is the competition’s second-leading run scorer with 498. People will talk of McCullum and Kane Williamson but the two are not actually in good form. In his last three innings the Kiwi captain has scored 12, 8 & 42 while Williamson has posted 33, 1 & 33. De Villiers has been marvellous netting 417 runs so far and while Hashim Amla has been hot and cold so far, he still has 323 runs and perhaps ominously, young Quinton De Kock appears to have hit form at just the right time.
Based on the above statistical and historical analysis it is near impossible to make a call on who will be the favourite to progress. Significantly neither side has ever been to a World Cup final. New Zealand is playing in its seventh World Cup final four while South Africa is featuring at this stage for the fourth time. The only certainty is that something will have to give.